A new study estimates the costs of energy sources including their carbon and other air pollutants Dana Nuccitelli, 18/3/2015 ![]() A new paper published in Climatic Change estimates that when we account for the pollution costs associated with our energy sources, gasoline costs an extra $3.80 per gallon, diesel an additional $4.80 per gallon, coal a further 24 cents per kilowatt-hour, and natural gas another 11 cents per kilowatt-hour that we don’t see in our fuel or energy bills. ![]() The study was done by Drew Shindell, formerly of Nasa, now professor of climate sciences at Duke University, and Chair of the Scientific Advisory Panel to the Climate and Clean Air Coalition. Shindell recently published research noting that aerosols and ozone have a bigger effect on the climate in the northern hemisphere, where humans produce more of those pollutants. That research led Shindell to question current estimates of the true costs of our energy sources. Much research has gone into estimating the social cost of carbon, which attempts to account for the additional costs from burning fossil fuels via the climate damages their carbon pollution causes. However, this research doesn’t account for the costs associated with other air pollutants released during fossil fuel combustion. For example, depending on how much more we value a dollar today than in the future (a factor known as ‘discount rate’), Shindell estimates carbon pollution costs us $32 per ton of carbon dioxide emitted in climate damages, and another $45 in additional climate-health impacts like malnutrition that aren’t normally accounted for. But Shindell also estimates that carbon emissions are relatively cheap compared to other fossil fuel air pollutants. For example, sulfur dioxide costs $42,000 per ton, and nitrous oxides $67,000 per ton! However, less of these other pollutants are released into the atmosphere during modern fossil fuel combustion. Electric Cars Cheaper than Gasoline PoweredFor an average American car (26 miles per gallon), Shindell estimates
that the air pollution emissions altogether cost us $1700 in damages
per year. In comparison, emissions from energy to power an electric
Nissan Leaf would cost us $840 even if purely powered by coal, and $290
if fueled by electricity supplied entirely from natural gas. These costs
would become negligible if the electricity came from renewable or
nuclear power. Electric vehicles (EVs) are clearly the winners in this
cost comparison.
The Needed Energy Transition May Have Begun in 2014The key conclusion from Shindell’s study is that fossil fuels only seem
cheap because their market prices don’t reflect their true costs. In
reality they are remarkably expensive for society, but taxpayers pick up
most of those costs via climate damages and other health effects. Those
who argue that we need to continue relying on fossil fuels – like former popular science writer Matt Ridley – just aren’t accounting for the costs of pollution. These air pollution costs are effectively a massive subsidy, and Shindell likely underestimated their size. When I asked Shindell if he had accounted for recent research by Moore & Diaz showing that climate change slows economic growth, he said,
This research shows that we need to transition away from fossil fuels not just to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, but to reduce the economic and health impacts of air pollution in general. Fortunately there was some good news this week suggesting that we may be on our way to making this transition. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported,
When we examine the data, 2014 indeed stands out. With 3% GDP growth,
it’s the first year on record that energy-related CO2 emissions didn’t
increase and GDP nevertheless grew by more than 2%. ![]() The IEA reports that the stagnation in carbon pollution stemmed from a transition away from fossil fuels rather than a drop in energy use due to poor economic conditions, as had been the case in previous years where CO2 emissions didn’t grow.
It’s important not to over-interpret a single data point, but it’s a
promising sign that carbon pollution emissions didn’t grow in 2014 while
the global economy did. This is the sort of “decoupling” of GDP and CO2 that needs to happen for a successful transition away from fossil fuels. Signs that we may have reached peak coal production are also encouraging. Source: theguardian.com |