The top 15 emitter countries could make deep cuts to emissions while also tripling economic output, according to the study Oliver Milman, 10/7/2014 ![]() Australia could slash its carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and still
experience average economic growth of 2.4% a year, according to a
UN-backed study. The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways report,
released by the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, analysed the 15
countries that account for 70% of greenhouse gases emitted into the
atmosphere, which includes Australia, the US, Britain and China. According
to the report, compiled by academics from each of the countries, the 15
countries could make deep cuts to emissions while also tripling
economic output. These cuts are needed, the report notes, if
the world is to avoid the “catastrophic” impact of failing to keep to
the internationally agreed limit of 2C global warming on pre-industrial
levels. The study concedes the world is on track to overshoot this. The
study notes that Australia has high per-capita emissions, with
coal-fired power providing 69% of electricity generation, higher than
most other industrialised countries. Despite this dependence
on fossil fuels, “fundamental changes” to Australia’s energy system
could allow it to cut its emissions to zero by 2050 while maintaining
economic growth of 2.4% a year, on average. The report points out that
Australia’s greenhouse gases have remained stable over the past 20
years, while the size of the economy has doubled. A further UN report in September will set out the monetary cost of a rapid increase in renewables to cut emissions to zero. But
the newly released study plots a path that involves phasing out coal
use almost entirely, shifting electricity generation to renewable
sources such as solar and wind, and powering vehicles and buildings with
clean electricity rather than fossil fuels such as oil and petrol. Industrial
and farming processes that can’t use such clean technology would be
offset by large-scale storage of carbon in soils and trees. Anna Skarbek, the executive director of ClimateWorks,
which provided input to the report alongside the Australian National
University, told Guardian Australia that emissions cuts and economic
growth could go hand-in-hand. “Australia has a higher
emissions intensity than other countries, but it also has a huge natural
endowment in renewable energy sources,” she said. “Unlike
many other countries, we are blessed with multiple renewable sources, as
well as a much larger capacity for carbon forestry and biofuels. We can
change our focus in energy systems rather than change economic growth.
Australia has made successful changes in the past, from gold to wool to
wheat, even in the rise of the internet in the past decade.” Skarbek
said the transition would need to start soon to help avoid breaching
the 2C limit, a temperature guardrail that has bipartisan support in
Australian politics. “The science is clear – we know that the
carbon budget is being rapidly used up and will be near zero by the
middle of the century,” she said. “If we plan now we can achieve the
transition in this time.” Frank Jotzo, director of the ANU
centre for climate economics and policy, said: “Decarbonisation would
mean that the energy system and some aspects of land management look
quite different from what they would under a high-carbon scenario. “But
for every declining technology there are new opportunities arising, and
most of the economy would simply motor on. Cleaning up the world’s
energy system does not stand in the way of economic prosperity.” The
Australian government has a minimum target of a 5% cut in carbon
emissions by 2020, based on 2000 levels. Governments will gather in
Paris next year to thrash out their emission cut commitments beyond
2020. A spokesman for the environment minister, Greg Hunt, said: “The government will review Australia’s 2020 target in 2015, considering further action and targets on the basis of comparable real global action.” |